Here's the feat. All right, I'll run the numbers.
Sadly, Imgur does not give precise second decimal numbers on their gifs, so I have to estimate the timeframe. But having watched it slower, I think the Nightmare flies for about half a second, some of which is offscreen. From the arc of the dragon's movement, it appears to fly 100 feet.
Monstrous Nightmares weigh 5,040 lbs on average.
KE = 1/2mv^2
1/2(5040)(61^2) = KE
(2520)(3721) = KE
9376920 = KE
That's 9.4 MJ. Not Toothless's best, but decent.
A concession on accuracy: The fact that we can see the blast and also that some small rocks were disturbed shows that the actual energy is higher. So ~15-20 MJ or more is probably more realistic for the total energy, but the effective energy remains lower than those.
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